Probability you even have Mercy
Hypergeometric (N=69, K=4). On the play, cards seen by turn t: n=7+(tā1).
| Checkpoint | P(at least one Mercy) |
|---|
Drain calculator (cost vs conversion)
Hereās the bridge between ādrawbackā and āassetā: you can convert visible tempo debt into advantage if you planned unused mana windows.
Drain next turn
Usable next turn
Utility U
Copy/paste math (negative-first, then asset condition)
# Negative-first: Mercy is a drain
Drain(L,r) = (1 - r) * L
# With a land drop next turn:
NormalNext = L + 1
PostMercyNext = rL + 1
Lost = NormalNext - PostMercyNext = (1 - r)L
# Two-turn capacity comparison (turn of Mercy + next turn):
Baseline2 = L + (L+1) = 2L + 1
Post2 = L + (rL + 1) = (1 + r)L + 1
Lost2 = Baseline2 - Post2 = (1 - r)L
# Asset condition (you convert the drain into advantage):
U(mode, L, r) = -Drain(L,r) + Ī± * Gain(mode)
Asset iff U > 0If you can keep r high (planned unused mana), the drain shrinks. Thatās your ā6ā8 mana split across two turnsā doctrine in equations.